Feinberg Forecast: The Oscars Landscape Post-Governors Awards Weekend

MOVIE NEWS - on 29 Oct 1919
movie news Feinberg Forecast: The Oscars Landscape Post-Governors Awards Weekend

The Hollywood Reporter's Scott Feinberg updates his charts to reflect his first impressions of 'The Banker' and 'Little Women'; a 'Ford v Ferrari' category change; Gotham Awards noms, the Britannia Awards and the Governors Awards.

Feinberg Forecast: The Oscars Landscape Post-Governors Awards Weekend 'Little Women' Wilson Webb

These projections, which will be updated regularly, reflect Scott Feinberg's latest impressions from screenings, publicly available information release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues, historical considerations how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated, precursor awards some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others and consultations with industry insiders including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters. Note: The Academy is free to classify performers as lead or supporting, regardless of how they are campaigned. These charts reflect Scott's best guess of what they will do in that regard.

Feinberg Forecast: The Oscars Landscape Post-Governors Awards Weekend

Best Picture

Feinberg Forecast: The Oscars Landscape Post-Governors Awards Weekend 'The Banker' Apple FRONTRUNNERS

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Sony
The Irishman Netflix
The Two Popes Netflix
Marriage Story Netflix
Parasite Neon
The Farewell A24
Jojo Rabbit Fox Searchlight
Bombshell Lionsgate
Little Women Sony NEW
Joker Warner Bros.

MAJOR THREATS

Just Mercy Warner Bros.
Honey Boy Amazon
Rocketman Paramount
Ford v Ferrari Fox
Pain and Glory Sony Classics
Waves A24
Uncut Gems A24

POSSIBILITIES

Downton Abbey Focus Features
The Peanut Butter Falcon Roadside Attractions
Judy Roadside Attractions
Hustlers STX
Queen & Slim Universal
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood Sony
The BankerApple NEW

LONG SHOTS

Toy Story 4 Disney
Us Universal
A Hidden Life Fox Searchlight
Booksmart Annapurna
The Last Black Man in San FranciscoA24
Avengers: Endgame Disney
Give Me Liberty Music Box NEW

STILL TO SEE

1917 Universal
Ad Astra Fox
Cats Universal
Dark WatersFocus Features
The Good Liar Warner Bros.
Knives Out Lionsgate
Richard Jewell Warner Bros.
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Disney

Best Director

Feinberg Forecast: The Oscars Landscape Post-Governors Awards Weekend

Todd Phillips directing 'Joker' Warner Bros. Pictures FRONTRUNNERS

Quentin Tarantino Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Martin Scorsese The Irishman
Bong Joon-ho Parasite
Noah Baumbach Marriage Story
Fernando Meirelles The Two Popes

MAJOR THREATS

Lulu Wang The Farewell — podcast
Greta Gerwig Little Women — podcast NEW
Todd Phillips Joker
Taika Waititi Jojo Rabbit
Pedro Almodovar Pain and Glory
Jay Roach Bombshell

POSSIBILITIES

James Mangold Ford v Ferrari
Benny Safdie & Josh Safdie Uncut Gems
Trey Edward Shults Waves
Alma Har'el Honey Boy
Terrence Malick A Hidden Life
Lorene Scafaria Hustlers

LONG SHOTS

Destin Daniel Cretton Just Mercy
Michael Engler Downton Abbey
Rupert Goold Judy
Olivia Wilde Booksmart — podcast
Marielle Heller A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Jon Favreau The Lion King

STILL TO SEE

J.J. Abrams Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker — podcast
Bill Condon The Good Liar
Clint Eastwood Richard Jewell
James Gray Ad Astra
Todd Haynes Dark Waters
Tom Hooper Cats
Rian Johnson Knives Out
Sam Mendes 1917

Best Actor

Feinberg Forecast: The Oscars Landscape Post-Governors Awards Weekend Eddie Murphy in 'Dolemite Is My Name' Courtesy of TIFF FRONTRUNNERS

Adam Driver Marriage Story — podcast
Joaquin Phoenix Joker
Leonardo DiCaprio Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Jonathan Pryce The Two Popes — podcast
Robert De Niro The Irishman — podcast

MAJOR THREATS

Eddie Murphy Dolemite Is My Name — podcast
Antonio Banderas Pain and Glory
Taron Egerton Rocketman
Adam Sandler Uncut Gems
Michael B. Jordan Just Mercy — podcast
Christian Bale Ford v Ferrari NEW

POSSIBILITIES

Matt Damon Ford v Ferrari
Robert Pattinson The Lighthouse — podcast
Shia LaBeouf The Peanut Butter Falcon
Adam Driver The Report — podcast
Daniel Kaluuya Queen & Slim

LONG SHOTS

Roman Griffin Davis Jojo Rabbit
Edward Norton Motherless Brooklyn
Anthony Mackie The Banker NEW
Jimmie Fails The Last Black Man in San Francisco
Matthew Rhys A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

STILL TO SEE

Timothee Chalamet The King — podcast
Brian Cox The Etruscan Smile
Paul Wer Hauser Richard Jewell
Ian McKellen The Good Liar — podcast
Brad Pitt Ad Astra
Mark Ruffalo Dark Waters

Best Actress

Feinberg Forecast: The Oscars Landscape Post-Governors Awards Weekend Lupita Nyong'o in 'Us' Claudette Barius/Universal Studios FRONTRUNNERS

Renee Zellweger Judy — podcast
Charlize Theron Bombshell
Scarlett Johansson Marriage Story
Awkwafina The Farewell
Saoirse Ronan Little Women — podcast

MAJOR THREATS

Cynthia Erivo Harriet
Alfre Woodard Clemency
Lupita Nyong'o Us
Florence Pugh Midsommar
Elisabeth Moss Her Smell — podcast

POSSIBILITIES

Meryl Streep The Laundromat — podcast
Felicity Jones The Aeronauts
Valerie Pachner A Hidden Life
Jodie Turner-Smith Queen & Slim

LONG SHOTS

Beanie Feldstein Booksmart
Kaitlyn Dever Booksmart
Julianne Moore Gloria Bell
Noémie Merlant Portrait of a Lady on Fire
Emma Thompson Late Night

STILL TO SEE

Isabelle Huppert Frankie — podcast
Helen Mirren The Good Liar — podcast
Camila Morrone Mickey and the Bear
Mary Kay Place Diane
Kristen Stewart Seberg — podcast
Naomi Watts Luce

Best Supporting Actor

Feinberg Forecast: The Oscars Landscape Post-Governors Awards Weekend Timon, voiced by Billy Eichner, in 'The Lion King' Courtesy of Disney FRONTRUNNERS

Brad Pitt Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Al Pacino The Irishman
Anthony Hopkins The Two Popes
Joe Pesci The Irishman
Shia LaBeouf Honey Boy

MAJOR THREATS

Tom Hanks A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood — podcast 2018 & podcast 2019
John Lithgow Bombshell
Alan Alda Marriage Story
Willem Dafoe The Lighthouse — podcast
Taika Waititi Jojo Rabbit
Jamie Foxx Just Mercy
Timothee Chalamet Little Women — podcast NEW

POSSIBILITIES

Jamie Bell Rocketman
Aldis Hodge Clemency
Sterling K. Brown Waves — podcast
Tracy Letts Ford v Ferrari
Sam Rockwell Jojo Rabbit — podcast
Robert Downey, Jr. Avengers: Endgame
Leslie Odom, Jr. Harriet — podcast

LONG SHOTS

Rob Morgan Just Mercy
Tim Blake Nelson Just Mercy NEW
Wesley Snipes Dolemite Is My Name
Billy Eichner The Lion King
Samuel L. Jackson The Banker — podcast NEW
Kelvin Harrison, Jr. Waves
Lucas Hedges Waves — podcast
Zack Gottsagen The Peanut Butter Falcon

STILL TO SEE

Ian McKellen Cats — podcast
Tim Robbins Dark Waters

Best Supporting Actress

Feinberg Forecast: The Oscars Landscape Post-Governors Awards Weekend Julia Butters in 'Once Upon a Time in Hollywood' Andrew Cooper/Sony Pictures FRONTRUNNERS

Laura Dern Marriage Story
Jennifer Lopez Hustlers — podcast
Margot Robbie Bombshell — podcast
Nicole Kidman Bombshell — podcast
Florence Pugh Little Women NEW

MAJOR THREATS

Margot Robbie Once Upon a Time in Hollywood — podcast
Annette Bening The Report
Maggie Smith Downton Abbey

Scarlett Johansson Jojo Rabbit
Thomasin McKenzie Jojo Rabbit — podcast
Shuzhen Zhao The Farewell

POSSIBILITIES

Julia Butters Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Taylor Russell Waves
Penelope Cruz Pain and Glory
Da'Vine Joy Randolph Dolemite Is My Name
Janelle Monae Harriet

LONG SHOTS

Meryl Streep Little Women — podcast NEW
Margaret Qualley Once Upon a Time in Hollywood — podcast
Adèle Haenel Portrait of a Lady on Fire
Gugu Mbatha-Raw Motherless Brooklyn
Julianne Moore After the Wedding
Lauren 'Lolo' Spencer Give Me Liberty NEW

STILL TO SEE

Ana de Armas Knives Out
Judi Dench Cats — podcast
Anne Hathaway Dark Waters
Jennifer Hudson Cats
Marisa Tomei Frankie

Best Adapted Screenplay

Feinberg Forecast: The Oscars Landscape Post-Governors Awards Weekend 'Jojo Rabbit' Fox Searchlight Pictures FRONTRUNNERS

The Two Popes Anthony McCarten
The Irishman Steven Zaillian
Joker Todd Phillips & Scott Silver
Jojo Rabbit Taika Waititi
Little Women Greta Gerwig — podcast NEW

MAJOR THREATS

Just Mercy Destin Daniel Cretton & Andrew Lanham
Hustlers Lorene Scafaria
Toy Story 4 Stephany Folsom & Andrew Stanton
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood Micah Fitzerman-Blue & Noah Harpster

POSSIBILITIES

Downton Abbey Julian Fellowes — podcast
Judy Tom Edge
The Laundromat Scott Z. Burns
Motherless Brooklyn Edward Norton

LONG SHOTS

Avengers: Endgame Christopher Markus & Stephen McFeely
The Lion King Brenda Chapman & Jeff Nathanson
Gloria Bell Alice Johnson Boher, Sebastian Lelio & Gonzala Maza
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World Dean DeBlois

STILL TO SEE

Cats Lee Hall & Tom Hooper
Dark Waters Matthew Michael Carnahan & Mario Correa
The Good Liar Jeffrey Hatcher
Richard Jewell Billy Ray
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker J.J. Abrams & Chris Terrio — podcast Abrams

Best Original Screenplay

Feinberg Forecast: The Oscars Landscape Post-Governors Awards Weekend 'Midsommar' Gabor Kotschy/A24 FRONTRUNNERS

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Quentin Tarantino
Marriage Story Noah Baumbach
Parasite Bong Joon-ho & Jin Won Han
The FarewellLulu Wang — podcast
Bombshell Charles Randolph

MAJOR THREATS

Honey Boy Shia LaBeouf
Pain and Glory Pedro Almodovar — podcast Almodovar
Dolemite Is My Name Scott Alexander & Larry Karaszewski
Waves Trey Edward Shults
Booksmart Susanna Fogel, Emily Halpern, Susan Haskins & Katie Silberman
Us Jordan Peele — podcast Peele

POSSIBILITIES

Uncut Gems Ronald Bronstein, Benny Safdie & Josh Safdie
Queen & Slim Lena Waithe — podcast
Ford v Ferrari Jez Butterworth, John-Henry Butterworth & Jason Keller
The Report Scott Z. Burns
Midsommar Ari Aster
The Lighthouse Max Eggers & Robert Eggers

LONG SHOTS

The Last Black Man in San Francisco Jimmie Fails, Rob Richert & Joe Talbot
The Peanut Butter Falcon Tyler Nilson & Michael Schwartz
A Hidden Life Terrence Malick
Rocketman Lee Hall
The Banker David Lewis Smith, George Nolfi & Stan Younger

STILL TO SEE

1917 Sam Mendes & Krysty Wilson-Cairns
Ad Astra James Gray & Ethan Gross
Fast Color Julia Hart & Jordan Horowitz
Frankie Ira Sachs & Mauricio Zacharias
Her Smell Alex Ross Perry
High Life Claire Denis & Jean-Pol Fargeau
Knives Out Rian Johnson
Seberg Joe Shrapnel & Anna Waterhouse

Best Animated Feature

Feinberg Forecast: The Oscars Landscape Post-Governors Awards Weekend 'I Lost My Body' Courtesy of Xilam Animation FRONTRUNNERS

Toy Story 4 Pixar
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World Dreamworks
I Lost My Body Netflix
Funan GKIDS
Abominable Universal

MAJOR THREATS

Weathering With You GKIDS

POSSIBILITIES

Missing Link United Artists Releasing

LONG SHOTS

The Secret Life of Pets 2 Universal
The Angry Birds Movie 2 Sony Pictures Releasing

STILL TO COME

Frozen 2 Disney
Klaus Netflix
A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon Lionsgate/Warner Bros.

Best Documentary Feature

Feinberg Forecast: The Oscars Landscape Post-Governors Awards Weekend 'Cunningham' Courtesy of TIFF FRONTRUNNERS

American Factory Netflix
Apollo 11 Neon
One Child Nation Amazon
The Biggest Little Farm Neon
The Cave National Geographic

MAJOR THREATS REST OF SHORTLIST

The Kingmaker Showtime
Diego Maradona HBO
Knock Down the House Netflix
Sea of Shadows National Geographic
For Sama PBS
Maiden Sony Classics
Ask Dr. Ruth Hulu/Magnolia
Prosecuting Evil: The Extraordinary World of Ben Ferencz Vertical
The Great Hack Netflix
17 Blocks MTV

POSSIBILITIES

Cunningham Magnolia
Tell Me Who I Am Netflix
Mike Wallace Is Here Magnolia
David Crosby: Remember My Name Sony Classics

LONG SHOTS

What She Said: The Art of Pauline Kael Juno
American Dharma Utopia
The Black Godfather Netflix
Love, Antosha self-distributed

STILL TO SEE

The Advocate Film Movement NEW
After Parkland still seeking US distribution
The Apollo HBO
Aquarela Sony Classics
At the Heart of Gold: Inside the USA Gymnastics Scandal HBO NEW
Black Mother Grasshopper
Blue Note Records: Beyond the Notes Eagle Rock NEW
Bully. Coward. Victim. The Story of Roy Cohn HBO
Citizen K Greenwich Entertainment
Cold Case Hammarskjold Magnolia
Don't Be Nice Juno
Echo in the Canyon Greenwich Entertainment
The Edge of Democracy Netflix
The Elephant Queen Apple
Emanuel SDG
Ernie & Joe: Crisis Cops still seeking U.S. distribution
#Female Pleasure Abramorama NEW
Fiddlin' Utopia
The Game Changers ReFuel Productions
Gay Chorus Deep South MTV
The Gift: The Journey of Johnny Cash YouTube
Everybody's Everything Gunpowder & Sky
Hail Satan? Magnolia
Honeyland Neon
Hope Frozen still seeking U.S. distribution
The Hottest August Grasshopper
Jim Allison: Breakthrough Dada
Linda Ronstadt: The Sound of My Voice Greenwich Entertainment
Making Waves: The Art of Cinematic Sound still seeking U.S. distribution
NEW
Midnight Family 1091 Media
Midnight Traveler Oscilloscope
Oliver Sacks: His Own Life still seeking U.S. distribution NEW
On the President's Orders PBS
The Proposal Oscilloscope
Raise Hell: The Life and Times of Molly Ivins Magnolia
Roll Red Roll PBS
Running With Beto HBO
The Serengeti Rules Abramorama NEW
They Shall Not Grow Old Warner Bros.
Toni Morrison: The Pieces I Am Magnolia
Western Stars Warner Bros.
Where's My Roy Cohn? Sony Classics
Who Will Write Our History? Abramorama

Best International Feature

Feinberg Forecast: The Oscars Landscape Post-Governors Awards Weekend 'Incitement' Israel Courtesy of TIFF FRONTRUNNERS

Parasite South Korea
Pain and Glory Spain
Les Miserables France
A White, White Day Iceland
Tel Aviv on Fire Luxembourg

MAJOR THREATS REST OF SHORTLIST

Papicha Algeria
The Traitor Italy
The Invisible Life of Euridice Gusmao Brazil
Monos Colombia
Atlantics Senegal

POSSIBILITIES

Those Who Remained Hungary
Our Mothers Belgium
It Must Be Heaven Palestine
Honeyland North Macedonia
Incitement Israel
System Crasher Germany
And Then We Danced Sweden
Beanpole Russia
Gully Boy India
Corpus Christi Poland
Weathering with You Japan

LONG SHOTS

Zana Kosovo
The Painted Bird Czech Republic
Out Stealing Horses Norway
Queen of Hearts Denmark
The Whistlers Romania
The Chambermaid Mexico
Knuckle City South Africa
Stupid Young Heart Finland
Ne Zha China
The Boy Who Harnessed the Wind United Kingdom
Let There Be Light Slovakia

Best Cinematography

Feinberg Forecast: The Oscars Landscape Post-Governors Awards Weekend 'Rocketman' Paramount Pictures Corporation FRONTRUNNERS

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Robert Richardson
The Irishman Rodrigo Prieto
Joker Lawrence Sher
The Two Popes Cesar Charlone
Marriage Story Robbie Ryan

MAJOR THREATS

The Lighthouse Jarin Blaschke
Little Women Yorick Le Saux NEW
A Hidden Life Jörg Widmer
Parasite Hong Kyung-Po
Ford v Ferrari Phedon Papamichael
The Lion King Caleb Deschanel
Jojo Rabbit Mihai Mălaimare Jr.
Waves Drew Daniels

POSSIBILITIES

Uncut Gems Darius Khondji
Rocketman George Richmond
Bombshell Barry Ackroyd
The Aeronauts George Steel
Harriet John Toll
Honey Boy Natasha Braier
Avengers: Endgame Trent Oplach

LONG SHOTS

Pain and Glory José Luis Alcaine
Midsommar Pawel Pogorzelski
Us Mike Gioulakis
The Farewell Anna Franquesa Solano
Portrait of a Lady on Fire Claire Mathon
Hustlers Todd Banhazl
Downton Abbey Ben Smithard
Just Mercy Brett Pawlak

STILL TO COME

1917 Roger Deakins
Ad Astra Hoyte van Hoytema
Cats Christopher Ross
Dark WatersAlex Howe
Gemini Man Dion Beebe
The Good Liar Tobias A. Schliessler
Richard Jewell Yves Bélanger
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Dan Mindel

Source: Hollywood Reporter

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Weekend of November 8 - 10, 2019 (IMDb)
1.
Midway
Net: $17.9M Grs: $17.9M
Weeks: 1
2.
Doctor Sleep
Net: $14.1M Grs: $14.1M
Weeks: 1
3.
Playing with Fire
Net: $12.7M Grs: $12.7M
Weeks: 1
4.
Last Christmas
Net: $11.4M Grs: $11.4M
Weeks: 1
5.
Terminator: Dark Fate
Net: $10.8M Grs: $48.5M
Weeks: 2
6.
Joker
Net: $9.2M Grs: $313.5M
Weeks: 6
7.
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
Net: $8.4M Grs: $97.7M
Weeks: 4
8.
Harriet
Net: $7.4M Grs: $23.6M
Weeks: 2
9.
Zombieland: Double Tap
Net: $4.3M Grs: $66.6M
Weeks: 4
10.
The Addams Family
Net: $4.2M Grs: $91.4M
Weeks: 5
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